ARAKAN LIKELY TO WIN INDEPENDENCE AT ANY MOMENT

Myanmar Army Facing Definite Defeat in Rakhine State;

The Arakan Army (AA), an armed ethnic group fighting as part of an alliance against the Myanmar military, has claimed control of a key western town near the border with India and Bangladesh. AP reports that about 340 members of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police and soldiers have fled into Bangladesh during fighting with an ethnic minority army, Bangladesh’s foreign minister Hassan Mahmud said while on a visit to India on Thursday, February, 8. It is the first time that Myanmar forces have been known to flee into Bangladesh since an alliance of ethnic minority armies in Myanmar launched an offensive against the military government late last year. The AA, which was in an uneasy truce with the military until late October, said it took full control of Paletwa in Chin State on Sunday afternoon, January 14, having overrun multiple military outposts. “There is not a single military council camp left in the entire Palewa area,” it said in a statement on its media page, which was accompanied by photos showing AA soldiers posing with their weapons outside key administrative buildings adorned with the group’s flag as well as weapons, ammunition and military equipment it had seized. “The entire Palewa region has been successfully controlledby[the]RakhineArmy,”thestatementadded. There was no comment from the military on the situation in Paletwa, or any reports in state-run media. The seizure of Paletwa represents another setback for the generals, marking their most significant challenge since seizing power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The Arakan Army (AA) claims a strength of about 30,000 troops and is a key member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’Ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

This alliance-initiated Operation 1027, a major offensive against the military in late October, resulting in the capture of strategic towns and military outposts near the northern border with China. The successful offensive has reinvigorated the anti-coup movement. Dr. Sasa, the Minister of International Cooperation in the National Unity Government formed by politicians ousted in the coup, welcomed the AA’s capture of Paletwa. “This is a significant success for the Nationwide Revolution, the Spring Revolution of Myanmar, the fight to free to entire population of Myanmar from the genocidal military dictatorship and to restore Myanmar to the path of an inclusive federal democratic Union for ALL,” he wrote on X.

The AA’s progress coincides with China’s recent announcement of brokering a ceasefire between armed groups and the military in northern Shan State. However, a similar agreement in December swiftly collapsed. The Arakan Army (AA) has been engaged in conflicts with the military in Rakhine, particularly following the 2017 brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya, which is now under scrutiny at the International Court of Justice for potential genocide. The AA’s objective is to secure autonomy for its ethnic population. Despite agreeing to a truce just before Myanmar’s national  election in November 2020, the AA’s political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), took advantage of the military coup to extend and solidify its influence in Rakhine. Resumed fighting ensued  amid military concerns over the AA’s increasing power.

Paletwa, located along the Kaladan River about 20km (12 miles) from the border with Bangladesh, is in Chin State to the north of Rakhine. As of September 2023, 965,467 Rohingya refugees have  been registered and issued documentation jointly by the Government of Bangladesh and UNHCR. Rohingyas are still stranded as refugees in Bangladesh border areas near Myanmar. After several  attempts, Rohingyas are unable to get back to their homeland in Rakhine.