The Bay WaveOn January 16, 2024, Iran conducted missile strikes in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, targeting alleged strongholds of the anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl. Simultaneously, Iran launched strikes in Iraq and Syria. In response, less than two days later, Pakistan retaliated with missiles and fighter jets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, claiming to target hideouts of anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist insurgents operating from Iranian soil.
This sudden escalation occurred amid heightened regional tensions, with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq carrying out frequent attacks on U.S. forces. The Red Sea also witnessed escalation due to Houthi attacks on global shipping. The two countries share a volatile 900-kilometer border, with Pakistan’s Balochistan province on one side and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province on the other.
Despite both nations combating militants in the restive Baloch region, it’s uncommon for either side to attack militants on each other’s soil. The recent strikes happened as part of broader regional conflicts, including attacks by Iran’s allies on Israeli forces. Iran claimed it targeted Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, causing casualties, but Pakistan criticized it as a violation of international law.
Iran’s dominant position in the Middle East, coupled with regional conflicts, may explain its proactive approach in pursuing targets beyond its borders.
The broader regional context involves conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Red Sea. Iran’s actions align with its goals, such as empowering Palestinians and countering American influence.
The Baloch people, residing where Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran meet, have a history of seeking independence. Balochistan, rich in natural resources, has witnessed insurgencies fueled by resentment over perceived exploitation. Jaish al-Adl, a separatist group operating in Iran, emerged after the fragmentation of Jundallah. The recent strikes and subsequent diplomatic tensions between Iran and Pakistan reflect complex geopolitical dynamics. The area they live in is also rich in natural resources, but Baloch separatists complain that their people, some of the region’s poorest, have seen little wealth trickle down to their communities.
Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province by area, has witnessed a spate of deadly attacks in recent years, fueled by a decades-long insurgency by separatists who demand independence from the country, angered by what they say is the state’s monopoly and exploitation of the region’s mineral resources. Iran has also faced a long history of insurgencies from its Kurdish, Arab, and Baloch minorities.
Jaish al-Adl is just one of many separatist groups operating within Iran. It was originally part of a larger Sunni militant group called Jundallah, which fractured after its leader was executed by Iran in 2010, according to the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center. Jaish al-Adl emerged instead and has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department.
The group often targets Iranian security personnel, government officials, and Shia civilians, according to the National Counterterrorism Center.
In 2015, the group claimed responsibility for an attack that killed eight Iranian border guards, with militants reportedly crossing into Iran from Pakistan. In 2019, it claimed responsibility for a
suicide bombing that hit a bus carrying members of the Iranian military, killing at least 23 in Sistan-Baluchestan.
A day after Iran’s strikes on Pakistan, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for an attack on an Iranian military vehicle in Sistan and Baluchestan.
Iran’s strikes on Tuesday sparked a diplomatic spat, with Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and suspending all high-level visits from its neighbor.
And after Pakistan’s strikes, Iran demanded “an immediate explanation” from its neighbor, Tasnim reported – and the Iranian military conducted a large-scale exercise off the country’s southwest coast, involving the air force, naval forces, and ground forces.
Nearby nations have weighed in, with Turkey’s foreign minister holding calls with his counterparts in both Iran and Pakistan. Afterward, he said neither country wanted to escalate tensions further.
India said it has “zero tolerance towards terrorism,” and that the attack was “a matter between Iran and Pakistan.” China urged both nations to exercise restraint, and the European Union said it was
“gravely concerned by the spiral of violence in the Middle East and beyond.”
US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller also urged restraint– but added he didn’t think the flare-up was “in any way, shape or form connected to Gaza.”
“But whenever you see things, see strikes in the region, given the tensions in the region, there is the risk for an increase in conflict, which is something that we’re trying to avoid,” he said. It is not clear whether either Iran or Pakistan would want to descend into full-blown hostilities over separatist groups that they both regard as an enemy. Both sides issued statements after their respective
strikes that hinted at a desire not to see things escalate.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry called Iran a “brotherly country” and emphasized the need to “find joint solutions.”
That echoed the Iranian foreign minister, who called Pakistan a “friendly country” earlier this week and said their strikes were proportionate and only aimed at militants.
Yet, hostilities have expanded significantly since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. In addition to Gaza and Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Red Sea have become domains of violent
action. A broad set of Iran-backed actors — such as Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Harakat al-Nujaba in Iraq — conducted attacks in different parts of the region. Iran itself struck
targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria.
In addition to deploying its military assets and striking military targets in Iraq and Syria, the United States worked with allies and formed Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and has been striking Houthi targets inside Yemen in response to their armed attacks. The United States also redesignated the Houthis as a terrorist organization. Weapon
types, frequency of attacks, and casualties have also been on the rise.
The likelihood of an Iranian nuclear weapon is far greater now than it was in 2018 when Trump killed the deal against the wishes of many Western allies.
“Iranian leaders may see acquiring nuclear weapons as a way to gain newfound assurance that it won’t be attacked by Israel or the United States — freeing the axis of resistance to wreak far more havoc,” wrote Ali Vaez in Foreign Affairs. “Plus, Iranian officials who want the country to get a nuclear weapon (Tehran itself is likely divided on whether to go nuclear) could view this as a moment of great opportunity. Iran’s rivals, after all, are distracted by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, competition with China, and elections.”
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