Hope for Rohingya Independent State:  Fresh-Fled Myanmar Security Personnel Entered Chattogram

The Arakan Army (AA) has gained significant ground against State Administration Council (SAC) troops in western Myanmar. The AA’s gains compound SAC losses in other parts of the country since Operation 1027 in October, reports, FULCRUM, Southeast Asia

BSS reports that on March 12 Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud said Dhaka is keeping in communication with Myanmar authorities to send back the 177 Myanmar security personnel who took shelter in Bangladesh amid the ongoing ethnic conflict in the neighboring country.

“Yesterday, 177 (Myanmar) border guards entered here. With them, some civilians also entered but they were pushed back … like the previous occasion, this time we are discussing with Myanmar to send back their security personnel,” he told the reporters at the foreign ministry in Dhaka.

The security personnel from Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) crossed the border near Naikhyangchari in Bandarban on Monday (March 11) and sought shelter in Bangladesh amid their ongoing conflict with the ethnic rebel group Arakan Army.

Replying to a query, the foreign minister said that Dhaka is in touch with Myanmar authorities and if required the Myanmar Ambassador to Bangladesh will be summoned.

The influx of Myanmar security personnel into Bangladesh coincides with the escalating conflict in western Myanmar. Following Operation 1027’s offensive against junta forces in late October, the Arakan Army has made significant territorial gains against SAC forces in Rakhine State. These gains have triggered indiscriminate attacks on civilians by SAC troops, reflecting their growing desperation amidst mounting losses.

A new battlefront has opened up in western Myanmar. Just weeks after the Operation 1027 offensive against junta forces in late October, the Arakan Army (AA) has chalked up a string of territorial gains against State Administration Council (SAC) forces in Rakhine State. The gains have provoked indiscriminate attacks on civilians by SAC troops — a development that might underscore their growing desperation.

The AA’s gains build on gains made by anti-junta forces in October. On 13 November 2023, 18 days after the launch of Operation 1027, fighting between the Myanmar military and the AA, an ethnic Rakhine ethnic armed organization (EAO), resumed in western Rakhine State. This broke a year-long informal ceasefire. On 14 January 2024, the AA declared that it had captured Paletwa township in neighboring Chin State from SAC control. Ten days later, the AA said it had “secured complete control” of Pauktaw township in Rakhine.

Launched in late October, Operation 1027 by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in northern Shan State caught much attention and discussion with its rapid progress in taking bases and outposts of the Myanmar military. The offensive was spearheaded by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, of which the AA is a member.

The AA’s territorial gains at the expense of the SAC have raised some comments and conjecture whether this constitutes a new battlefront that has formed in western Myanmar. Some analysts are looking at prospects of the SAC regime being toppled by a coordinated resistance, while others are taking a more “wait and see” attitude. The latter might be a more accurate assessment, given developments on the ground.

First, the AA’s gains in the wake of Operation 1027 underscore the extent to which groups fighting the Myanmar military have taken inspiration from Operation 1027’s success in gaining significant ground at the expense of the junta. Second, there seems to be a strategic shift in battle dynamics in Rakhine State. The SAC forces are now using more air strikes and artillery that indiscriminately target civilian populations and historical heritage sites. This suggests that SAC forces are increasingly on the defensive against the various armed groups. This may be a result of the junta’s losses during Operation 1027 when it lost several strategic installations and towns.

The landscape of fighting in Rakhine State has also shifted from rural to urban areas. Since the fighting resumed in early November last year, the AA attempted to seize four major cities in the state: Pauktaw in central Rakhine, 22 kilometers from the state capital Sittwe, Rambree in the south, Mrauk-U (the ancient Arakan capital) and Minbya in the north. Fierce battles in these areas have displaced communities. SAC forces launched an aerial attack on 25 December on the Cultural Heritage Museum in Mrauk-U and conducted airstrikes on Pauktaw and Rambree cities. It was reported that AA forces captured Mrauk-U and Minbya on 6 February.

The author’s analysis of news reports over November and December 2023 found that junta forces and the AA engaged in at least 100 clashes in Rakhine as of 31 December. Of these, at least 40 could be classified as ‘fierce battles’ based on the intensity of clashes, combatant casualties, and the number of people displaced. The most frequent clashes took place in the Paletwa and Maungdaw townships. These townships border Bangladesh (Maungdaw) and India (Paletwa) and have some strategic value, given that they straddle key infrastructure and trade routes. The AA stated on 27 November that it had seized 62 outposts and camps from the Myanmar military in Maungdaw township. It added that it had taken at least 17 SAC outposts and stations, including at least three hills in the Paletwa township. These are areas that the Myanmar military had controlled with relative ease from 2018 to 2020, and over which the AA has now taken de facto control.

This turning point for AA’s ground control has compelled the SAC to use only airlifts instead of land routes and waterways in sending reinforcements from Rakhine’s state capital Sittwe to Maungdaw and Paletwa. Even areas such as Kyaukphyu and Rambree – where major Chinese infrastructure projects are sited – have witnessed high numbers of clashes, complicating a recent agreement between the SAC and China for early implementation of the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project.

Given the losses it has suffered and the AA’s increased control of strategic highways and waterways in Rakhine, the SAC is not making any moves as yet to recover losses in Rakhine. In mid-January 2024, news reports citing unnamed sources listed 120 SAC soldiers surrendering to the AA. Some updates place the latest number of surrenders at 200. About 150 SAC soldiers fled to India on 29 December 2023 and were repatriated three days later.

As the SAC seeks to stem losses in Rakhine, its trade and travel blockade in the state has disproportionately affected the local civilian population rather than the AA. Though observers view this policy as one of the junta’s tactics to halt the AA’s offensives, the SAC’s move has inflicted suffering on the civilian population and will only add to the growing list of atrocities committed by the SAC.

The AA’s recent taking of Paletwa, Pauktaw, Minbya, Maybone, Mrauk-U, and Kyauktaw is unprecedented in its battles with SAC forces in Rakhine State thus far. The AA’s advances occurred while China was mediating a ceasefire deal between the SAC and the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Myanmar. The AA’s victories could provide some forward momentum to armed resistance efforts in other parts of the country, thus placing SAC troops under more pressure across Myanmar.

The evolving situation in western Myanmar underscores the complexities of the conflict and its implications for regional stability. The influx of Myanmar security personnel into Bangladesh highlights the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis, necessitating diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of the conflict and facilitate the safe return of displaced individuals. As the conflict continues to unfold, international stakeholders must remain vigilant and proactive in their efforts to promote peace and stability in the region.