The Bay WaveQuinnipiac University’s December 20, 2023 poll shows Biden opens up lead over Trump in head-to- head, whereas CNN January 25- 30 poll reveals Trump narrowly leads Biden in general election rematch. In Quinnipiac University’s December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup was ‘too close to call’ as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.
Democrats (96 – 2 percent) and independents (52 – 40 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (91 – 7 percent) support Trump. The gender gap is widening. Women 58 – 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 – 41 percent. Men 53 – 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 – 41 percent.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support. Among independents in the five- person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 35 percent support, Trump receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support, and Stein receives 5 percent support.
BIDEN VS. HALEY In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, a former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, 47 percent of voters support Haley and 42 percent support Biden.
In the poll, Democrats (87 – 10 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (79 – 4 percent) and independents (53 – 37 percent) support Haley.
In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 36 percent support, Haley receives 29 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 21 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.
Among Republicans in the five- person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 3 percent support, Haley receives 57 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, and
West receives 1 percent support. “In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to independents. Add third-party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part
because of her weakness among Republicans,” added Malloy.
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES With the 2024 Republican presidential primary now whittled down to two candidates, 77 percent of Republican and Republican leaning voters support Trump and 21
percent supportHaley.
In December’s poll with more candidates in the race, Trump received 67 percent support and Haley received 11 percent support. In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Biden receives 78 percent support among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, author Marianne Williamson receives 11 percent support, and U.S. Representative from Minnesota Dean Phillips receives
6 percent support.
BIDEN
Voters give President Biden a negative 41 – 55 percent job approval rating. While still deep in the red, it is his highest job approval rating since June 2023. Voters were asked about Biden’s handling of… the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 47 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove, with 8 percent not offering an opinion; the economy: 42 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove, with 3 percent not offering an opinion; foreign policy: 37 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion; the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 34 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion; the situation at the Mexican border: 28 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion. “As inflation fears cool and the b r u i s i n g c a m p a i g n heats up, President Biden rides a welcome small uptick in confidence in his handling of the economy,” added Malloy. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT More than 8 in 10 voters (84 percent) are either very concerned (41 percent) or somewhat concerned (43 percent) that the United States will be drawn into a military conflict in the iddle East, while 15 percent are either not so concerned (11 percent) or not concerned at all (4 percent). “Are the winds of war swirling in the sands of the Middle East? As American troops take eadly fire from terrorist proxies, the conflict footprint is broadening and with it, the concerns of a large majority of voters are solidifying,” added Malloy.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 24 percent of voters say preserving democracy in the United States, 20 percent say the economy, and 20 percent say immigration.There are wide gaps by party identification.
Among Republicans, the top issues are immigration (38 percent), the economy (29 percent), and preserving democracy in the United States (12 percent). Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (39 percent) followed by the economy (12 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.
A m o n g i n d e p e n d e n t s , the top issues are preserving democracy in the United States (23 percent), immigration (19 percent), and the economy (18 percent).
U.S. – MEXICO BORDER A majority of voters (61 percent) consider the situation at the border between the U.S. and Mexico a crisis, while 33 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 4 percent think it is not a problem at all. There are wide gaps by party identification. Among Republicans, 82 percent think it is a crisis and 17 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis. Among Democrats, 43 percent think it is a crisis, 51 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 6 percent think it is not a problem at all.
Among independents, 60 percent think it is a crisis, 35 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 3 percent think it is not a problem at all. Nearly 6 in 10 voters (59 percent) think U.S. policy on immigration is not strict enough, 20 percent think it is about right, and 15 percent think it is too strict.
Voters are split when it comes to building a wall along the border with Mexico, with 49 percent opposing building a wall and 47 percent supporting it. This compares to a Quinnipiac University national poll in October 2023 when 52 percent supported building a wall along the border with Mexico (an all-time high) and 44 percent opposed it.
Nearly 6 in 10 voters (58 percent) think immigrants from other cultures have a mainly positive impact on American society, while 27 percent think immigrants from other countries have a mainly negative impact, and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.
ECONOMY
Thirty-six percent of voters describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as either excellent (6 percent) or good (30 percent), while 63 percent describe it as either not so good (29 percent) or poor (34 percent).
This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll in August 2023 when 30 percent of voters described it as either excellent (3 percent) or good (27 percent) and 69 percent described it as either not so ood (32 percent) or poor (37 percent).
Asked what they consider is the best measure of how the nation’s economy is doing, 46 percent of voters say the prices of goods and services they buy, 19 percent say the unemployment rate and job
reports, 15 percent say their personal finances, 9 percent say the housing market, and 5 percent say the stock market index. 1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from January 25th – 29th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 696 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The urvey included 693 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, onducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing ith live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in general election rematch By Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN With presidential primaries underway and a 2020 general election rematch eemingly the most likely outcome, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows former President Donald Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden in what’s shaping up to be a close contest nationally.
The poll highlights voters’ conflicted feelings about the leading candidates. Broad majorities of Democrats and Republicans say they’d be satisfied if their party’s candidate won such a rematch. Still, sizable minority of voters express a desire for another option if Biden and Trump are the nominees.
Overall, 49% of registered voters say they would back Trump if an election between the two were held today, while 45% support Biden and 5% say they’d vote for someone else. Those numbers are identical to CNN polling on the contest in the fall, and the demographic dynamics of the contest appear to be steady – with a wide education gap among the most notable demographic divides, and smaller differences by age or race than in other recent presidential elections.
Biden’s support among traditionally Democratic- leaning blocs such as younger voters and voters of color has not grown since the fall: Voters younger than 35 remain about evenly split, 49% back iden and 46% Trump, while voters of color break 57% Biden to 35% Trump.
Most voters on both sides of the hypothetical matchup continue to be more likely to say their choice is about Trump than that it is about Biden (68% of Biden supporters say they’d be voting against Trump rather than for Biden, while 60% of Trump supporters say they’d be voting more for him than against Biden).
A month into the election year, there are few signs of movement in how the public views either candidate. Both Trump and Biden continue to be deeply underwater in favorability ratings (59% of Americans hold an unfavorable view of Biden and 55% have a negative take on Trump), and many say that Biden does not deserve reelection (66%). Americans largely see Trump’s views and policies as “too extreme” (63%), while most see Biden’s views and policies as “generally mainstream” (61%). The poll finds that a victory by either candidate would leave most of the nation dissatisfied and a substantial share upset.
Voters in the poll were asked whether they would like to see another candidate from within the party they’re closest to run as an independent if Biden were the Democratic nominee and Trump the Republican. Among Democrats and Democratic- leaning independents, 43% say they’d want to see another Democrat make an independent bid alongside a Biden-Trump matchup, while 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would want a Republican candidate to run as an independent in that scenario. Polling consistently shows that the idea of a third arty or independent candidate for president is popular, but in reality, third-party bids rarely generate as much support as pre-election polling would suggest.
The pull of party loyalty comes through in the poll’s broad majorities who say they would be content should their party’s likely nominee win. Roughly 8 in 10 GOP-aligned voters say they’d be satisfied or enthusiastic with another Trump presidency, and roughly three-quarters of Democratic-aligned voters are similarly positive about a second Biden term.
Neither Biden nor Trump has locked in their party’s nomination. Trump’s last remaining major GOP opponent, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, holds a clear lead over Biden among voters nationwide in another hypothetical general election scenario: 52% support her compared with 39% for Biden. Voters’ choices in that matchup are primarily motivated by views of Biden, with 63% of his supporters saying they back him more than they oppose her, while 63% of her supporters say it’s more about opposing Biden than about backing her. Still, many Americans say they don’t know enough about Haley to have an opinion of her (42%). Those who do currently break more negative than positive, 32% unfavorable to 25% favorable.
Haley trails Trump by roughly 50 points when Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters are asked who they would most like to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2024 (70% ay Trump, 19% Haley, 8% name someone else).
Republicans express confidence in Trump’s odds at winning a second term as president: 88% ofRepublican-aligned voters say he has a realistic chance of winning the presidency should he become the nominee, while only 29% see Biden as having a realistic shot at winning. About 7 in 10 (72%) Republican-aligned voters say the party has a better chance to win the White House with Trump at the top of the ticket than someone else, and 57% say they would be enthusiastic should he become president again. And most Republican-aligned voters view Trump as generally mainstream (62%) rather than too extreme (37%).
Haley faces more pessimism among the potential Republican electorate about her chances to win. Despite numerous national polls showing her holding a broader lead over Biden than Trump does in hypothetical matchups, just 54% of GOP-aligned voters see her as having a realistic shot at winning, and a scant 16% would be enthusiastic about her should she become the next occupant of the hite House.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters,her favorability rating lags far behind Trump’s: 31% have a favorable view of Haley, compared with 71% who have a positive view of Trump.
Republican-aligned voters’ concerns about Trump as a candidate remain more focused on his personality and image than on his policies. The share saying their biggest concern about him is his abrasive or disrespectful nature has climbed from 8% late last summer to 15% now. And 8% say they are concerned he will be attacked by or unable to work with Democrats, 8% that his legal ituation or possible convictions are their biggest concern, 6% cite his bad public image and widespread dislike of him, and 5% express concerns that elections would be rigged against him. About 1 in 5, 19%, say they have no concerns about Trump as a candidate.
While most Democrats see Biden as having a realistic shot at winning a second term (80% of Democratic- aligned voters say so), most also see Trump as having a real shot at the White House (61%), and a narrow majority say that Biden is not the candidate who brings the Democratic Party its best chance to win. In the new poll, 53% of Democratic and Democratic- leaning voters say their party has a better chance to win in 2024 with someone else at the top of the ticket. Democratic concerns about Biden remain concentrated around his age. Nearly half, 46%, cite his age when asked to name their biggest concern about him as a presidential candidate, with 5% mentioning his mental competence or sharpness, 2% citing worries about his ability to handle the job and 2% worrying that he wouldn’t live through a second term. About 3% say it’s not his age that concerns them personally, but ageism and how his age is perceived by others.
And a new concern has emerged about Biden: 5% say his handling of the conflict between Israel and Hamas is their major concern, an issue that hadn’t yet emerged when CNN last polled on this question in August. Democratic-aligned voters younger than 45 are more apt to name this as their top concern than are older voters (9% of those younger than 45 mention Israel, compared with 3% among older Democratic-aligned voters).
The poll suggests, though, that an enthusiasm gap that broke for the Republicans in polling last fall may have narrowed. In the new poll, 63% of Republican- aligned voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the 2024 presidential election, down from 71% in the fall. Among Democrats, the share who is deeply motivated to vote has held closer to even: 58% say they are extremely motivated now compared with 61% in the fall.
Overall, Biden’s approval rating among all adults stands at 38% approve and 62% disapprove, similar to where that figure has been hovering for much of the last year. Democrats are more positive toward his job performance (78% approve), but a smaller majority of Democrats say he deserves a second term (69%). Among independents, 66% disapprove of his job performance, and 70% say he does not deserve a second term in the White House.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from January 5-30 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. For results among the 983 registered voters surveyed, the error margin is plus or minus 3.8 points.
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